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Taxi for Uber? Technology and disruption

How time may change technological disruption

2017 from a business point of view was undoubtedly - and yet again - the year of technology.

The NASDAQ index of U.S. technology companies led global markets, appreciating almost 30% over the year. The technology-heavy S&P 500 wasn’t far behind, rising almost 20% in 2017. The reasons for the recent strength in the sector have been well documented. Much has been written on the so-called “FAANGS” companies that are made up by Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. The four technology behemoths have moved U.S. indices higher as investors continued to place a high value on strong leadership, strong market positions and increasing evidence of (or potential for) profits and cashflows.

Private markets also delivered strong returns. Again, they were boosted by technology stocks, with discussion focusing on the rapid proliferation of “unicorns” - private companies valued at more than $1 billion. Here, each new round of financing seemed to confirm further value creation by these companies, mostly consisting of technology ones.

However, between Christmas and New Year, we were reminded that valuations don’t always go up. Instead, we were provided with a stark reminder of what happens when these companies get it wrong. Uber announced that a Softbank-led consortium would acquire a 17% stake in the company for $9 billion, buying a mixture of new and existing shares. The transaction injected about $1.25 billion of new equity into the business.

Drilling further into the detail, though, it became apparent that that the existing shares tendered to Softbank consortium were valued at a 30% discount to the previous fundraising – in a tender offer that was oversubscribed even at this price.

Annus horribilis

It should probably go without saying that 2017 was an “annus horribilis” for Uber, with the company wracked by mounting concerns over its structure, its culture and its business model. However, given that Uber is a private company, this is the first time that we have been able to see somewhat under the bonnet and ascertain what the year has wrought on the company’s value.

Under its new Chief Executive, Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber now has a chance to get back on a more sensible trajectory. Governance already looks to have improved, and the new team appears to have digested the messages of past mistakes.

However, the mood music around many of these technology giants also feels like it is changing.

However, the mood music around many of these technology giants also feels like it is changing. There is much more public scrutiny of what these companies are, and what they are about.

When Uber - and other technology unicorns - defined their businesses, they tended to make great play of “disruption.” It’s a safe bet that gaming the taxation and regulatory system was not what they meant to highlight. And “rethinking,” if the unicorns are steered down this path, is unlikely to result in additional profit.

Broken dreams

One of last year’s more popular business books was Move Fast and Break Things by Jonathan Taplin. The title was taken from one of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s quotes regarding disruption. Taplin rages against “Fake News. Digital monopolies. Stealth marketing.” He asserts that the internet, which began as a dream, has become a nightmare. He recounts how organizations have profited from it, through massive reallocation of revenues from the creators and owners of content to vast digital monopolies. While many of Taplin’s views will not be shared by all, his nervousness over the power of the technological sector is becoming more common currency.

And finally, there is not a day that goes by without a politician in some country opining on the power and potential misuse of the newfound power of some technology elites. It may seem that globally, politicians’ tanks could be firmly parked on the technology companies’ lawns. In itself, this may change behavior and perhaps profitability.

Still, the global technology sector contains some of the finest companies in the world, is run by some of the best leadership in the world and hires some of the best minds in the world. There remains considerable opportunity. But the winds could be changing, and it may be worth being cautious.

Important Information

Indices are unmanaged and have been provided for comparison purposes only. No Fees or expenses are reflected. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Companies mentioned for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list.

ID: US-100118-55300-1